Bird Flu - Food supply chain planning

Food supplies may be a critical issue in the event of a flu pandemic. With predictions that up to a third of the population may become ill in such a pandemic what planning has the food industry taken for such an event?
As individuals, in western countries, we give little thought these days to the security of our food supplies. When we need food we go to the nearest supermarket or grocery store and buy what we need. Our expectation is that the food and other supplies will be there when we need it and in the amounts we need. But will this be the case if a flu pandemic occurs? How will the food industry supply us with fresh produce if their staff are affected by the pandemic? What will we do if the advice is to stay away from public places?

Mothers looking after families are normally able to rely on going to the supermarket once or twice a week for their main shopping. The prospect that families will not be able to do this will cause alarm as many families are likely to have stocks of food for no more than three or four days.

In the USA sectors like water, energy and health care have assistance from state and federal government in their disaster planning. Such assistance does not appear to have been forthcoming however for the food industry. Individual supermarket chains and wholesalers must therefore plan themselves to deal with a potentially large number of sick workers that could affect store operations and disrupt the food supply.

The U.S. Dept of Health and Human Services estimates a third of the population could fall ill if the H5N1 strain of the bird flu mutates into a form that spreads easily from person to person - although it is of course not certain that this will happen.

The U.S. Department of Homeland Security has projected that worker absenteeism could reach over 40 percent for a prolonged period. If this scale of absenteeism does occur during a pandemic, retail food stores would have major worker shortages and there would be supply chain disruption.

The U.S. Department of Homeland Security lists the food and agriculture industry among 13 critical-infrastructure sectors that must remain functional during a pandemic. Maintaining critical facilities such as power, water and food is of course vital during a pandemic.

Another factor that must be taken into account is that in the U.S. and the UK people tend to be eating out more than in the past. During a pandemic food consumption is likely to move significantly away from restaurants and fast-food back to eating at home. The consequence of this will be greater demand for groceries and a need for retailers and distributors to plan for this.
Retailers planning for a pandemic must consider alternative supply chains and anticipate products that will be in high demand during a pandemic situation - in particular medicines and staple foods.

However if retailers and suppliers make all their plans individually and in secret there is a risk that competitive behaviour during a pandemic will reduce the efficiency of a stressed food supply chain. There are strong arguments for government therefore to ensure that there is a core element of co-ordinated planning and that overall control can be assumed in the event that individual plans are unable to deliver continuing food supplies.

It also makes sense for individuals and families to consider maintaining larger stocks of foods, in particular non-perishable staples (eg canned foods, dried fruit, powdered milk) as this will provide an element of additional insurance.